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2020年得獎者
陳羅以，碩二；氣候變遷下致災性降雨積淹水災害預警報模擬分析
指導教授：賴進松博士、潘宗毅博士、謝宜桓博士
摘要
在氣候變遷下極端天氣事件發生的頻率和強度增加，並且在臺灣雨量最豐沛的汛期時，因梅雨、颱風以及對流雨興盛，發生積淹水機率逐年增加。目前水利署因應淹水災害而研訂的警戒參考標準，以不同小時之降雨量訂定降雨警戒值，並配合即時雨量觀測（如QPESUMS）以及全臺灣各地實際降雨狀況研判因應，然而能更提前預測之警戒仍有改善之空間。為發展更完善之積淹水災害預警作業，本研究收集在 2014 至 2018 年臺北市較易淹水區域中山區、中正區和大安區之即時雷達回波觀測圖及歷年時雨量資料，爾後採用類神經網路中自組織特徵映射(self-organizing feature maps, SOM)的分群演算法建立研究區域之三度空間雷達回波數據和雨量實況觀測的關係，利用聚類演算來進行群聚分析，由結果將淹水災害事件挑出以探討在雷達回波與發生災害的機率關係，並對應至淹水警戒值之是否提前發布。
關鍵詞：極端降雨、雷達回波、類神經網路、降雨型態分析、降雨－淹水警戒值
林思穎，碩一；降水量變化對棲蘭雲霧森林陸地水和碳吸存的影響
指導教授：羅敏輝博士
摘要
To maintain the ecosystem’s equilibrium in Taiwan’s cloud-fog forest, canopy water whose sources from intercepted precipitation, fog and the early-morning dew is a significant factor. The canopy water can regulate evapotranspiration and influence the local plants’ photosynthesis, making the species evolve a unique strategy for water usage. The pattern of precipitation is found to have changed under climate change, making the dry season drier and wet season wetter. The extreme rainfall can affect the soil moisture variability and the accumulation of canopy water in cloud-fog forest. It has been proven from the previous studies that the soil moisture variability reduces evaporation and results in the decrease in photosynthesis and carbon uptake. The “rich get richer” precipitation is supposed to decrease the canopy water. Less coverage of canopy water on the stomata may contribute to the increase in transpiration, along with photosynthesis and carbon uptake. Thus, soil moisture variability and canopy water may have opposite impacts on carbon uptake under the continued intensification of precipitation. However, their combined effects on the production of cloud-fog forest ecosystem remains unclear. In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on carbon uptake and terrestrial water through two paths: canopy water and soil moisture variability. We will combine observations and modeling framework to find out which path in Chi-Lan cloud fog forest has is dominated in the carbon cycle in the past few years and the changing trend in carbon uptake.
2019年得獎者
俞可昕，碩三；在氣候變遷的影響下致災性降雨對小集水區積淹水災害預警報模擬分析──應用於社區防災
指導教授：賴進松博士、謝宜桓博士
摘要
With the impact of climate change, flooding caused by extremely heavy rains has become more frequent. The development of better predictions of space and time accuracy, and the connection of disaster warning systems, and the expectation of more disaster prevention and aging in the future is now a very important issue. A perfect flood warning system is even more important in urban areas where economic activity and social resources are concentrated and have a high risk of disaster vulnerability. This study will combine the WEPS quantitative precipitation forecasting products, as well as the rainfall-runoff model, the one-dimensional, two-dimensional drainage model, and GCMs model, which considering the impact of climate change, and evaluate the precipitation events, which rainfall is over 40 mm or caused disaster in past three years in Taipei City. Then the results will improve the accuracy of precipitation and inundation forecast and provide visualized flooding forecast maps to disaster prevention communities in urban areas--take the Dahu village in Neihu District of Taipei City for example.
Key words: flood inundation early warning, climate change, community disaster prevention, ensemble precipitation forecasts, WEPS, GCMs
謝斯喆，碩三；Urban community gardening in Taipei City.
指導教授：張聖琳博士
摘要
Urban community gardening has been drawing increasingly interest from academia, government, and the public in the past decades, as an approach towards urban sustainability and resilience. Existed studies on the phenomenon, however, are generally based on the western experience, while urban gardening agenda is also rising in East Asia’s industrialized cities. Through the fieldwork in Taipei City, which is featured by active civil society participation and strong government support, the Garden City Initiative (田園城市), the study intends not only to depict the overview, characteristics and diversity of the urban community gardens here, but also to analyze the dynamics of social design and the issues related to urban governance in a higher city level.
Keywords: urban gardening, community garden, sustainability, social design, urban governance
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